[#][F] Eric Minton - 11/1/2019
Originally posted by JohnDoe244 View Post
Is it fair to say that the usual chances of Exalting as a Dragon-blooded from most to least are approximately as follows (on average -- with "wild deviations from these norms")?

1 Dragon-Blooded parent who has just completed the pilgrimage round the Caul (100%)
2 Dragon-Blooded parents with Well Bred (80%)
2 Dragon-Blooded parents, one with Well Bred
2 Dragon-Blooded parents of normal pedigree (or one with Well Bred, one Thin-Blooded) (50%)
2 Dragon-Blooded parents, one Thin-Blooded
2 Dragon-Blooded parents, both Thin-Blooded
1 Well Bred Dragon-Blooded, 1 Well Bred Mortal
1 Well Bred Dragon-Blooded, 1 Mortal
1 Dragon-Blooded, 1 Well Bred Mortal
1 Dragon-Blooded, 1 Mortal
1 Thin-blooded Dragon-Blooded, 1 Well Bred Mortal
1 Thin-blooded Dragon-Blooded, 1 Mortal
2 Well Bred mortals
1 Well Bred mortal, 1 mortal
2 mortals (infinitesimally small odds)

Because until you posted that, I had Well Bred mortals on a keel with Thin-Blooded Terrrestrials. I'm more interested in Dynastic perception and the effects on proposals and marriage dynamics than the actual hard facts, but any insights you're willing to share would be gratefully received. (Especially an Exaltation rate for two Thin-Blooded parents -- I'm guessing around 20%.)
There's no canonical answer because we never spelled this out in What Fire Has Wrought or The Realm, but this seems like a reasonable extrapolation. I don't want to get into specific odds, other than to note that pedigree isn't as granular as the Merits and Flaws involved, but rather a spectrum; two Dynastic Dragon-Blooded of weak pedigree are probably more likely to have Dragon-Blooded children than two outcaste parents.